After an interesting but confusing week, the question of market direction remains. This is critical for your forecast papers that are due in a couple of weeks.
To provide some further resources for looking at this question, I have found a new resource: a section of Barron's Online. The section of interest is called: "Getting Technical" by Michael Kahn. I suggest that you read his most recent article. There are two others (at least) of interest as well. One of these (from 4/13) concerns whether a signal had been missed at that time. The second, from February, while dated, gives good information and insights on how sector rotations can relate to the potential of a market top.
This last article can help you to better understand StockCharts.com's PerfChart tool that I illustrated in class on Thursday. Which sectors are outperforming? Are these defensive or cyclical? As you track this through time, keep an eye on the sector roations that are occurring. What do these imply about the strength of the economy?
REMEMBER: a slowdown can either be in the rate of economic growth (what we are now experiencing) or a full-fledged recession, where growth turns negative. The media often takes the second definition as being the case. Don't you make that mistake!
I strongly suggest that you read the articles referenced above and keep up with the newer articles from Mr. Kahn as they are written.
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