Today we discussed the bond market in class and how bond prices and interest rates move in opposite directions. This can be seen vividly in today's news. Existing (median) home prices declined relative to last year, a rare event. This is bullish for bonds since it implies that inflation should come down a bit, and the inflation measures we use (like the CPI) will likely drop as well. Remember: bullish for the bond market means higher demand and higher bond prices -- which causes lower interest rates. You can read about this in an article from MarketWatch.com.
To further understand what is happening, remember our basic model of nominal interest rates (r):
r = f(expected inflation, economic growth, monetary policy)
Today, the news caused expected inflation (and actually expected growth) to moderate, causing nominal interest rates to fall. Remember: you can also explore this by using the ratio TIP:TLT in StockCharts.com, or take a look at the TIPS spread from Bloomberg.com (the link is: http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html ). You should bookmark this link.
When at Bloomberg.com above, page down to the graph. This is today's yield curve. Then, click on the tabs for different countries. Compare the interest rates (say 10 year) for the different countries listed.
Finally, oil prices bounced off support at $60 today. Graph $WTIC in StockCharts.com. Look to the left from today's values to see where support lies. You will see a $60 support point from early March of this year. Had this support not held, the prior support of just under $58 that I mentionned in class would be the relevant level. There was a bullish divergence in effect which makes today's move not entirely surprising. Oil price was falling while the RSI was making higher lows.
The question now is how long this upward move will hold. How far might it go? Resistance, remember?
Monday, September 25, 2006
Friday, September 22, 2006
Bearish Divergence As A Leading Indicator of Price Change
Cyclical stocks ($CYC) move in the same direction as actual or expected economic growth. As a market, this is itself a leading indicator. And, its changes contain real-time information on market expectations concerning growth.
As you know, yesterday (9/21), two indicators were released that caused markets to change sentiment -- reflecting the belief that the economy would weaken farther and possibly faster than was previously expected. On yesterday's blog post, I detailed how this affected the 10-year bond rate. That rate fell again today (to 4.6%). With the expectation of slower growth, cyclicals should also weaken. And they did.
In the handouts on technical analysis, I detailed what is called a bearish divergence: price action moving higher but the RSI not experiencing higher highs. This is a leading indicator of a downward move in price in the near term. Note this is not 100% accurate, but it has a fairly good track record.
I have included a graph of cyclical stocks where such a bearish divergence is evident (and marked). Click on the chart to enlarge it.
Based on this bearish divergence, one should have expected some decline in cyclicals, and thus the perception of a weakening economy gaining traction. THIS DOESN'T MEAN THE ACTUAL ECONOMY WILL NECESSARILY WEAKEN -- JUST THAT THE EXPECTATION OF THE MARKET IS THAT IT WILL WEAKEN.
To earn extra credit, get the chart of cyclicals and using weekly data for the past two years, annotate the chart, drawing lines and adding comments. Determine if a bearish divergence occurred. Also, draw the support line for weekly data and a possible support line for the Relative Strength indicator. This will be accepted no later than the beginning of class on Monday. No pencil or pen lines will count.
The next test is to see if the support line (indicated in the graph) is broken next week. Note that cyclicals have been underperforming the overall market (based on a declining Relative Strength (below the graph) since early May. It is also possible to draw a support line for the Relative Strength indicator.
As you know, yesterday (9/21), two indicators were released that caused markets to change sentiment -- reflecting the belief that the economy would weaken farther and possibly faster than was previously expected. On yesterday's blog post, I detailed how this affected the 10-year bond rate. That rate fell again today (to 4.6%). With the expectation of slower growth, cyclicals should also weaken. And they did.
In the handouts on technical analysis, I detailed what is called a bearish divergence: price action moving higher but the RSI not experiencing higher highs. This is a leading indicator of a downward move in price in the near term. Note this is not 100% accurate, but it has a fairly good track record.
I have included a graph of cyclical stocks where such a bearish divergence is evident (and marked). Click on the chart to enlarge it.
Based on this bearish divergence, one should have expected some decline in cyclicals, and thus the perception of a weakening economy gaining traction. THIS DOESN'T MEAN THE ACTUAL ECONOMY WILL NECESSARILY WEAKEN -- JUST THAT THE EXPECTATION OF THE MARKET IS THAT IT WILL WEAKEN.To earn extra credit, get the chart of cyclicals and using weekly data for the past two years, annotate the chart, drawing lines and adding comments. Determine if a bearish divergence occurred. Also, draw the support line for weekly data and a possible support line for the Relative Strength indicator. This will be accepted no later than the beginning of class on Monday. No pencil or pen lines will count.
The next test is to see if the support line (indicated in the graph) is broken next week. Note that cyclicals have been underperforming the overall market (based on a declining Relative Strength (below the graph) since early May. It is also possible to draw a support line for the Relative Strength indicator.
Thursday, September 21, 2006
Soft Landing?
The economic indicators released today raised serious questions about how rapidly the overall economy is slowing. Prior to today, the consensus view was that economic growth would continue to slow, but not by enough to seriously crimp profits. Along with this, the Fed would be done raising rates, and might even begin rate cuts by the middle of 2007.
Two reports in particular, the Philadelphia Fed's Economic Activity Index was a negative value, well below the concensus (of around 13). Also, the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell for the fourth time in the last five months. Hardly an endorsement for future economic strength. Read about these developments in an article.
This percieved future loss of economic strength affected interest rates. The benchmark 10-year government bond fell by 8 basis points. Furthermore, by the end of the day, this rate had fallen to its support level from mid March. I have provided a chart using StockCharts.com (click on the graph to enlarge it). Note that at its present level, the 10-year is only slightly overbought and that short-term resistance is not the 200-day moving average. (NOTE: divide the right-side scale by 10 with this interest rate)
Two reports in particular, the Philadelphia Fed's Economic Activity Index was a negative value, well below the concensus (of around 13). Also, the Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators fell for the fourth time in the last five months. Hardly an endorsement for future economic strength. Read about these developments in an article.
This percieved future loss of economic strength affected interest rates. The benchmark 10-year government bond fell by 8 basis points. Furthermore, by the end of the day, this rate had fallen to its support level from mid March. I have provided a chart using StockCharts.com (click on the graph to enlarge it). Note that at its present level, the 10-year is only slightly overbought and that short-term resistance is not the 200-day moving average. (NOTE: divide the right-side scale by 10 with this interest rate)
Wednesday, September 13, 2006
Is the Market Headed Higher?
We discussed technical analysis a bit in class today along with sector rotations. When the economy is slowing, you will observe a rotation from sectors that do well with a strong economy (like cyclicals ($CYC) and discretionary spending (XLY)) toward more defensive sectors like consumer staples (XLP), telecommunications (IYZ), and public utilities (XLU).
A good article dealing with this by Michael Kahn of Barron's discusses this. It provides more practice as you learn the material from the handouts today. He points to relative strength as an indicator (recall this is a symbol or index divided by the overal S&P 500). When the relative strength graph is upward sloping, that market is outpeforming the overall stock market. For XLP, that has been the case since mid April.
Finally, note how you can apply lines to other measures such as advancing issues versus declines, or as Kahn's article shows, advance volume vs. decliner volume.
A good article dealing with this by Michael Kahn of Barron's discusses this. It provides more practice as you learn the material from the handouts today. He points to relative strength as an indicator (recall this is a symbol or index divided by the overal S&P 500). When the relative strength graph is upward sloping, that market is outpeforming the overall stock market. For XLP, that has been the case since mid April.
Finally, note how you can apply lines to other measures such as advancing issues versus declines, or as Kahn's article shows, advance volume vs. decliner volume.
Monday, September 11, 2006
CLASSROOM and Practice Exercise
Today our classroom permanently moved to CHAFEE 219. Please note this.
As you read your technical analysis material, go to StockCharts.com and practice by working with the graph for oil (symbol $WTIC). Where is the trend? As people ask where oil price is likely to go, you can use the chart and see the past levels of support. When a price graph is falling, LOOK TO THE LEFT and find a previous level of support. What price is it? Annotate the graph. My handout says how to print this if you want to keep a record of this.
Note that on StockCharts.com, you can use either daily or weekly time frames. Perform the above analysis on the daily chart, note past support, then switch the frequency to weekly. Do the same thing. Where is weekly support?
As you read your technical analysis material, go to StockCharts.com and practice by working with the graph for oil (symbol $WTIC). Where is the trend? As people ask where oil price is likely to go, you can use the chart and see the past levels of support. When a price graph is falling, LOOK TO THE LEFT and find a previous level of support. What price is it? Annotate the graph. My handout says how to print this if you want to keep a record of this.
Note that on StockCharts.com, you can use either daily or weekly time frames. Perform the above analysis on the daily chart, note past support, then switch the frequency to weekly. Do the same thing. Where is weekly support?
Thursday, September 7, 2006
Technical Analysis Practice
You should be reading Stikki Stock Charts (finish it for class Wednesday). Let me refer you to a free article from Barron's Online by Michael Kahn -- someone I will be referring to throughout the semester.
His most recent article, Will September Be the Cruelest Month , contains several technical formations and tools that we will be discussing all semester. These are introduced in Stikki. Feel free to read though the archives of Mr. Kahn's column as well.
You should visit StockCharts.com. I have a set of downloadable notes on the online syllabus that detail how to use this site. Try it. It's actually quite easy, and you have the entire semester to gain proficiency with it.
His most recent article, Will September Be the Cruelest Month , contains several technical formations and tools that we will be discussing all semester. These are introduced in Stikki. Feel free to read though the archives of Mr. Kahn's column as well.
You should visit StockCharts.com. I have a set of downloadable notes on the online syllabus that detail how to use this site. Try it. It's actually quite easy, and you have the entire semester to gain proficiency with it.
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