Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Sector Rotations and the 200-day Moving Average

Bloomberg's had an excellent interview with John Murphy, the author of this course's Intermarket Analysis text. Here is a link to the You Tube interview. You will probably need to play it a few times, but take notes and try to understand the role of gold (here's an article to help), how the 200-day moving average has significance in reading the market, especially for selecting stocks, and how to use sector performance data as a leading indicator for when the overall stock market will bottom.

Today's market behavior moved us closer to testing the Dow-Jones and S&P 500 average bottoms from November. Note that the media refers to closes as bottoms, while technically lows should be used. If reaction tomorrow to the President's plan to control foreclosures is tepid or just plain hostile, we should test the November lows. Study today's OHLC bar and where the RSI(9) is relative to giving an oversold reading. Then strap your seatbelts for tomorrow's market action.

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