Friday, March 6, 2009

Follow Up on GE

A few days ago I wrote a post about a classic bottoming pattern displayed by GE. Now that trading for the week has ended, I want to quickly revisit GE. The chart shows price action for Thursday and Friday (click to enlarge):

Notice that GE outperformed the market on the two bad days that ended the week. Its relative strength (below chart) turned up signifying this fact. Also, while GE is still oversold, it is less oversold than it was on Wednesday. Finally, look at the price bars (I omitted volume to unclutter the chart). There are higher lows, which is good, but we have yet to exceed Wednesday's high.

The fact that GE's price withstood a big down day on Thursday is something to pay attention to. Keep checking to see how this plays out.

I will finish this post with a look at GE from a weekly perspective. How does this week's price action show up? The weekly chart is given below (click to enlarge).

Note that the price bar for this week has a large lower tail, indicating that the potential bottoming we observed with the daily charts is beginning to show up on the weekly level. Weekly volume also shows a surge, consistent with the daily result from Wednesday. Also, the RSI indicates that GE is the most oversold it has been since December (the period of this chart).

As a rule, you should always look at daily and weekly charts before deciding whether to purchase or sell stocks. Daily charts contain a lot of "noise," based on day-to-day fluctuations that might not reflect the overall trend. Weekly charts smooth the daily fluctuations out.

So, the weekly chart has not yet given a buy signal. We require confirmation of the pattern with price next week going above last week's high. How likely is this? I recommend checking the upcoming economic data for next week to see if any potential "land mines" exist. Then, follow the daily and weekly price data in that context.

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