Welcome Back!

Welcome to the Fall 2011 semester.

This blog will have postings throughout the semester -- my way of communicating important information to you when we are not meeting as a class. Check in on the days after class meets, especially on weekends.

The past few years have been dominated by a severe and continuing financial crisis following a global recession. That recession was so severe (believed to be the worst since the Depression) that it took on a name: "The Great Recession." This semester, growth remains a major concern, as there is still considerable debate about whether or not the US economy will experience a double-dip recession. Whether or not this occurs, housing market weakness continues to be important, as are the financial problems in the Euro zone as are those of individual US states. One question that was a worry just a year ago, whether we might be flirting with deflation, has been eliminated. The focus has now shifted to how much inflation any further Fed actions might create. Remember, the fed funds rate, which the Fed has traditionally targeted, remains close to 0%. And the Fed recently pledged to keep it there until 2013! Will they now target longer-term interest rates? Stay tuned, as the semester progresses. We might even have an answer to this by the end of September.

As I stated in class today, by semester's end, you will come to understand that all of the factors we discussed and come to discover that these are actually interrelated. As the semester unfolds, you will observe the collective actions of the world's central banks, and whether their existing assessments prove to be correct.

For now, read all of Stikki Stock Charts for next Thursday and download the online notes for the technical analysis handouts I have written. If you get a chance, visit the web site: StockCharts.com. On the online syllabus I have added introductory material that will assist you in using that web site (we will be referring to it all semester).

If you have any questions throughout the semester, don't hesitate to e-mail me (llardaro@uri.edu) and/or stop by my office, Chafee 804. DO NOT LEAVE PHONE MESSAGES!!

Finally, if during the semester, you want to research the entire set of blog posts on a specific topic, click on its label beyond a particular post. The result will be a view of all of the posts that include that word as a label.