Tuesday, September 21, 2010
ECN 327 Syllabus
I have posted the online lecture notes on the bond market. Please download them and bring them to our next class.
Monday, September 20, 2010
The US Recession is Officially Over
Today, the group officially responsible for applying dates to national business cycle turning points (i.e., recessions and recoveries), the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), declared that the most recent recession ended in June of 2009. Read their full statement.
Just as most people didn't realize we were in recession for quite some time after the most recent recession began, many didn't realize that we have now been in an economic recovery for over a year. There are several reasons for this.
First, a (national) recession is not defined the way most people think it is. Apparently almost everyone believes that a recession occurs when the US economy experiences at least two consecutive quarters where real (inflation-adjusted) GDP declines. This definition is predicated entirely on the behavior of a single variable -- national output, which would be declining for at least six consecutive months. Were this the definition, it would be very easy to "date" recessions: count to two after checking GDP releases, looking for negative growth rates. Second, the NBER does not do things this way, nor do they restrict their analysis exclusively to quarterly data. Read the Q&A about the way they define recessions and recoveries. In this, the NBER states a very important point: a recession isn't defined as being a period of low activity, but a time period of continually declining economic activity. Extending this to recoveries, these don't necessarily indicate a return to "normal" times. Instead, they reflect continually improving economic activity in a number of areas.
What is the actual definition the NBER uses to define a recession? According to the NBER, a recession is defined in the following way:
"The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."
So, from this, what we can infer is that as we are now about a year into a national economic recovery, economic activity in a number of areas is improving (on average). THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE HAVE RETURNED TO "TRADITIONAL" LEVELS OF THESE VARIABLES. That could take months or even years, especially as our economy is in a period where persons are saving and paying down debt, and bank lending is not as great as we would like to see it.
Confusion surrounding the dates of recessions and recoveries is the manifestation of a very basic observation I will make: persons instinctively focus on the levels of economic variables; economists extend this focus on levels to rates of change as well. So, the rate of economic growth is just that -- a rate of growth and thus a measure of rate of change. Actually, economists often go farther, as we are now concerned about whether the rate of economic growth will be slowing. This means economists are now focusing on rates of change (are we slowing?) in the rate of change (the rate of economic growth). You will often hear this referred to as the "second derivative" of economic activity. Clearly, economists think and speak a different language than do most people, often defying "intuition."
Just as most people didn't realize we were in recession for quite some time after the most recent recession began, many didn't realize that we have now been in an economic recovery for over a year. There are several reasons for this.
First, a (national) recession is not defined the way most people think it is. Apparently almost everyone believes that a recession occurs when the US economy experiences at least two consecutive quarters where real (inflation-adjusted) GDP declines. This definition is predicated entirely on the behavior of a single variable -- national output, which would be declining for at least six consecutive months. Were this the definition, it would be very easy to "date" recessions: count to two after checking GDP releases, looking for negative growth rates. Second, the NBER does not do things this way, nor do they restrict their analysis exclusively to quarterly data. Read the Q&A about the way they define recessions and recoveries. In this, the NBER states a very important point: a recession isn't defined as being a period of low activity, but a time period of continually declining economic activity. Extending this to recoveries, these don't necessarily indicate a return to "normal" times. Instead, they reflect continually improving economic activity in a number of areas.
What is the actual definition the NBER uses to define a recession? According to the NBER, a recession is defined in the following way:
"The NBER does not define a recession in terms of two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. Rather, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."
So, from this, what we can infer is that as we are now about a year into a national economic recovery, economic activity in a number of areas is improving (on average). THIS DOES NOT MEAN WE HAVE RETURNED TO "TRADITIONAL" LEVELS OF THESE VARIABLES. That could take months or even years, especially as our economy is in a period where persons are saving and paying down debt, and bank lending is not as great as we would like to see it.
Confusion surrounding the dates of recessions and recoveries is the manifestation of a very basic observation I will make: persons instinctively focus on the levels of economic variables; economists extend this focus on levels to rates of change as well. So, the rate of economic growth is just that -- a rate of growth and thus a measure of rate of change. Actually, economists often go farther, as we are now concerned about whether the rate of economic growth will be slowing. This means economists are now focusing on rates of change (are we slowing?) in the rate of change (the rate of economic growth). You will often hear this referred to as the "second derivative" of economic activity. Clearly, economists think and speak a different language than do most people, often defying "intuition."
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Welcome Back!
Welcome to the Fall 2010 semester.
This blog will have postings throughout the semester -- my way of communicating important information to you when we are not meeting as a class. Check in on the days after class meets, especially on weekends.
The past few years have been dominated by a severe financial crisis and a global recession. The recession was so severe (believed to be the worst since the Depression) that it took on a name: "The Great Recession." This semester, growth remains a major concern, as there is considerable debate about whether or not the national economic recovery will falter, moving us to a "double dip recession." Whether or not this occurs, credit market weakness (ongoing credit problems and further after-effects of sub-prime mortgages) continues too be important, as is the behavior of future price change (are we closer to inflation or deflation?). The Fed can no longer lower the fed funds rate, as it is currently at (or near) 0. What do they do if things weaken? We will discuss this.
By semester's end, you will come to understand that all of the factors we will be discussing throughout this semester are interrelated. And, as the semester unfolds, you will observe the collective actions of the world's central banks, and whether their prior assessments prove to be correct.
For now, read all of Stikki Stock Charts for next Thursday and visit the web site: StockCharts.com. On the online syllabus I have added introductory material that will assist you in using that web site (we will be referring to it all semester).
If you have any questions throughout the semester, don't hesitate to e-mail me (llardaro@uri.edu) and/or stop by my office, Chafee 804. DO NOT LEAVE PHONE MESSAGES!!
Finally, if during the semester, you want to research the entire set of blog posts on a specific topic, click on its label beyond a particular post. The result will be a view of all of the posts that include that word as a label.
This blog will have postings throughout the semester -- my way of communicating important information to you when we are not meeting as a class. Check in on the days after class meets, especially on weekends.
The past few years have been dominated by a severe financial crisis and a global recession. The recession was so severe (believed to be the worst since the Depression) that it took on a name: "The Great Recession." This semester, growth remains a major concern, as there is considerable debate about whether or not the national economic recovery will falter, moving us to a "double dip recession." Whether or not this occurs, credit market weakness (ongoing credit problems and further after-effects of sub-prime mortgages) continues too be important, as is the behavior of future price change (are we closer to inflation or deflation?). The Fed can no longer lower the fed funds rate, as it is currently at (or near) 0. What do they do if things weaken? We will discuss this.
By semester's end, you will come to understand that all of the factors we will be discussing throughout this semester are interrelated. And, as the semester unfolds, you will observe the collective actions of the world's central banks, and whether their prior assessments prove to be correct.
For now, read all of Stikki Stock Charts for next Thursday and visit the web site: StockCharts.com. On the online syllabus I have added introductory material that will assist you in using that web site (we will be referring to it all semester).
If you have any questions throughout the semester, don't hesitate to e-mail me (llardaro@uri.edu) and/or stop by my office, Chafee 804. DO NOT LEAVE PHONE MESSAGES!!
Finally, if during the semester, you want to research the entire set of blog posts on a specific topic, click on its label beyond a particular post. The result will be a view of all of the posts that include that word as a label.
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Potential Exam Questions for ECN 334
I have gone through the questions submitted for potential inclusion on the final exam. Here are the questions I will choose from (there will be at least one and possibly two selected).
1. Outline the impact of tougher financial regulation on the stock market.
2. Last year, the Fed decided not to pursue inflation as its primary target. Outline the actions the Fed would have taken had its target been inflation and the consequences of those actions at the present time.
3. How will the stock and bond markets react to the debt crisis in Europe, specifically in Greece?
4. Discuss the effect of bond prices on interest rates based on Yield to Maturity. In doing so, indicate in detail other factors that determine how bond prices or the bond market would react if one of these factors were to suddenly change.
5. Using the material from this course, outline why the US will have a slow and long recovery from the financial crisis of 2007, focusing on businesses and consumers.
6. What are some of the risks of unregulated derivative trading by investment banks? Be sure to explain what a derivative is and teh specific dangers they pose to the economy if unregulated.
7. Explain how the federal funds rate is an important indicator for the stock market.
When you take the final exam on Friday, MAKE SURE THAT EACH OF YOUR RESPONSES ANSWERS THE SPECIFIC QUESTION IT IS ADDRESSED TO. I strongly suggest that before you hand in your exam, read each question again then make sure that your response is to the specific question posed and not just a series of statements that might be correct overall but that don't really answer the question.
1. Outline the impact of tougher financial regulation on the stock market.
2. Last year, the Fed decided not to pursue inflation as its primary target. Outline the actions the Fed would have taken had its target been inflation and the consequences of those actions at the present time.
3. How will the stock and bond markets react to the debt crisis in Europe, specifically in Greece?
4. Discuss the effect of bond prices on interest rates based on Yield to Maturity. In doing so, indicate in detail other factors that determine how bond prices or the bond market would react if one of these factors were to suddenly change.
5. Using the material from this course, outline why the US will have a slow and long recovery from the financial crisis of 2007, focusing on businesses and consumers.
6. What are some of the risks of unregulated derivative trading by investment banks? Be sure to explain what a derivative is and teh specific dangers they pose to the economy if unregulated.
7. Explain how the federal funds rate is an important indicator for the stock market.
When you take the final exam on Friday, MAKE SURE THAT EACH OF YOUR RESPONSES ANSWERS THE SPECIFIC QUESTION IT IS ADDRESSED TO. I strongly suggest that before you hand in your exam, read each question again then make sure that your response is to the specific question posed and not just a series of statements that might be correct overall but that don't really answer the question.
Potential Exam Questions for ECN 335X
I have gone through the questions submitted for potential inclusion on the final exam. Here are the questions I will choose from (there will be at least one and possibly two selected).
1. Outline the underlying basis of the relationship between bond and commodity prices. Give an example of how this relationship can change based on occurrences in the other two intermarkets that would contradict this "traditional" relationship.
2. Explain the effects of a weakening US Dollar in an intermarket context.
3. Can the stock market and commodities move in opposite directions? Explain the basis of your answer.
When you take the final exam tomorrow, MAKE SURE THAT EACH OF YOUR RESPONSES ANSWERS THE SPECIFIC QUESTION IT IS ADDRESSED TO. I strongly suggest that before you hand in your exam, read each question again then make sure that your response is to the specific question posed and not just a series of statements that might be correct overall but that don't really answer the question.
1. Outline the underlying basis of the relationship between bond and commodity prices. Give an example of how this relationship can change based on occurrences in the other two intermarkets that would contradict this "traditional" relationship.
2. Explain the effects of a weakening US Dollar in an intermarket context.
3. Can the stock market and commodities move in opposite directions? Explain the basis of your answer.
When you take the final exam tomorrow, MAKE SURE THAT EACH OF YOUR RESPONSES ANSWERS THE SPECIFIC QUESTION IT IS ADDRESSED TO. I strongly suggest that before you hand in your exam, read each question again then make sure that your response is to the specific question posed and not just a series of statements that might be correct overall but that don't really answer the question.
Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Final Paper Citations
The forecast paper for ECN 335 that is due Friday MUST include correctly formatted footnotes and bibliographies. You should get into the habit of doing this for every paper you write. In order to make this process a bit less daunting for you, I have located an easy-to-use link that illustrates the appropriate footnote and corresponding bibliographic entries for various types of sources you might reference. I have chosen the Chicago style for this.
Finally, all of you need to avoid using incorrect words that unfortunately have the effect of making your writing and/or you appear to be "dumb" to persons who don't know you. I am referring to the confusion between "effect" and "affect," and "to" versus "too." I have a handout for you detailing this. If you confuse these words in your papers, you will be penalized a +/- on your paper grade.
Finally, all of you need to avoid using incorrect words that unfortunately have the effect of making your writing and/or you appear to be "dumb" to persons who don't know you. I am referring to the confusion between "effect" and "affect," and "to" versus "too." I have a handout for you detailing this. If you confuse these words in your papers, you will be penalized a +/- on your paper grade.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
What are Interest Rates Telling Us?
As we outlined in class yesterday, interest rates and the bond market have a great deal of predictive ability concerning future levels of economic activity. The simple yet very powerful model of interest rates you should use is:
As I noted, inflation expectations and growth expectations are not necessarily independent of each other, so the time frame you are considering becomes relevant to seeing which matters more. You can use the TIP:TLT ratio in StockCharts.com as one proxy for expected inflation, while a preferable way is to calculate (and track through time) the TIPS spread (= nominal interest rate - TIP rate with same maturity). This is available daily (in real time) from Bloomberg.com. Here is a link to the web page to use for this. As of today (4/21/10), the 10-year US Treasury bond has a rate of 3.79%, while the 10-year Inflation Indexed Security (TIP) has a rate of 1.43%. So:
Historical data on this is available from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).
If you want to find a proxy for the level of economic activity and income, you can use consumer cyclicals ($CYC) in Stockcharts.com. Where is support for this? Resistance? Are there any leading indicators from technical analysis that can be of help in the short-term (ex: bullish or bearish divergences based on the RSI)?
So, you should use the interest rate model above whenever you need to explain interest rate changes or to make interest rate forecasts. To do this, you will need to generate a forecast for each explanatory factor. Possibly, over the time period of your forecast, a factor that usually matters will not matter much. Or possibly, a factor that normally doesn't matter much will be influential. Remember: NOBODY KNOWS THE FUTURE (except CNBC, of course).
For those of you who have taken ECN 327 with me, you can expand the basic interest rate model substantially. Using general macroeconomic models such as the IS-LM and AD-AS, you can identify a fairly large set of factors that determine either economic growth (Ye in those models) or inflation (changes in Pe in the AD-AS model). Basically, those factors are the "other things" of the relevant curves.
Looking at a chart (click to enlarge) of the 10-year rate ($TNX), resistance at 4% becomes readily apparent (note: you must divide the number on the right axis by 10 to get the interest rate). Short-term support is at roughly 3.5%. Why has resistance held over the one-year period covered by this graph? Rates fell twice from 4% (a double top, by the way). What causes interest rates to decline? To answer this question, use the interest rate model.
Rates decline for some combination of declining expected inflation, less expected future growth, or monetary easing. Obviously, we can rule out monetary easing. That leaves us with declines in expected growth and inflation.
Will the 10-year re-test resistance or support? Again, use the interest rate model to answer this question. Anyone doing their forecast on interest rates will have to do this.
Read the relevant chapters in John Murphy's Intermarket Analysis to further help you with an understanding of this topic.
interest rate = f(expected inflation, economic growth, monetary policy)
As I noted, inflation expectations and growth expectations are not necessarily independent of each other, so the time frame you are considering becomes relevant to seeing which matters more. You can use the TIP:TLT ratio in StockCharts.com as one proxy for expected inflation, while a preferable way is to calculate (and track through time) the TIPS spread (= nominal interest rate - TIP rate with same maturity). This is available daily (in real time) from Bloomberg.com. Here is a link to the web page to use for this. As of today (4/21/10), the 10-year US Treasury bond has a rate of 3.79%, while the 10-year Inflation Indexed Security (TIP) has a rate of 1.43%. So:
TIPS SPREAD = 3.79% - 1.43% = 2.36%
Historical data on this is available from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).
If you want to find a proxy for the level of economic activity and income, you can use consumer cyclicals ($CYC) in Stockcharts.com. Where is support for this? Resistance? Are there any leading indicators from technical analysis that can be of help in the short-term (ex: bullish or bearish divergences based on the RSI)?
So, you should use the interest rate model above whenever you need to explain interest rate changes or to make interest rate forecasts. To do this, you will need to generate a forecast for each explanatory factor. Possibly, over the time period of your forecast, a factor that usually matters will not matter much. Or possibly, a factor that normally doesn't matter much will be influential. Remember: NOBODY KNOWS THE FUTURE (except CNBC, of course).
For those of you who have taken ECN 327 with me, you can expand the basic interest rate model substantially. Using general macroeconomic models such as the IS-LM and AD-AS, you can identify a fairly large set of factors that determine either economic growth (Ye in those models) or inflation (changes in Pe in the AD-AS model). Basically, those factors are the "other things" of the relevant curves.
Looking at a chart (click to enlarge) of the 10-year rate ($TNX), resistance at 4% becomes readily apparent (note: you must divide the number on the right axis by 10 to get the interest rate). Short-term support is at roughly 3.5%. Why has resistance held over the one-year period covered by this graph? Rates fell twice from 4% (a double top, by the way). What causes interest rates to decline? To answer this question, use the interest rate model.Rates decline for some combination of declining expected inflation, less expected future growth, or monetary easing. Obviously, we can rule out monetary easing. That leaves us with declines in expected growth and inflation.
Will the 10-year re-test resistance or support? Again, use the interest rate model to answer this question. Anyone doing their forecast on interest rates will have to do this.
Read the relevant chapters in John Murphy's Intermarket Analysis to further help you with an understanding of this topic.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Financial Sector Plunges on Goldman News
On Friday, news about the SEC bringing charges against Goldman Sachs and one of its VP's for fraud charges shook the markets. According to the SEC, Goldman created Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs), a collection of parts of mortgage backed bonds, which were destined to fail, then sold them to entities without fully disclosing the facts concerning how these were constructed (toxic) and that a major hedge fund (of Paulson) was betting against them. Here is a link to a story about this. And, in an amazing intermarket application of all of this, there is a potential basis to associate the difficulties with Goldman Sachs with future gold prices. Here is a story about this.
Technical analysis of the ETF for financials (XLF) shows how significant Friday's events were. The chart (click to enlarge) shows how the sharp decline in price on Friday broke a very steep trendline, while still preserving (for now at least) the overall uptrend (based on RSI >= 40). This decline did not lack conviction (sorry for the pun), as it was based on extremely high volume.
Based on Fibonacci Analysis, the next potential support for XLF occurs at the 38.2% retracement level with a price of $15.77 (Friday's close was $16.36). On the chart, note that the 50% retracement occurs at a prior high (from early January of this year) of $15.35. At this point, a 50% retracement can not be ruled out, as more news will no doubt emerge next week, much of which will involve negatives for Goldman Sachs and (potentially) other similar firms as well. Also, markets tend to overreact in the short-term to such momentous news events.
The question now becomes how financials react and whether this trend for XLF is broken convincingly. For extra credit due at the beginning of class next Tuesday, create a PerfChart of the S&P sectors (as I did in class on Thursday) with a time period that starts at the beginning of April this year. Based on this, which sector has led this "leg" of the rally? What does the chart above signify about any potential changes in what the PerfChart shows? Should the defensive sectors see money flowing in as the result of Friday's news? Paste the PerfChart and brief answers to these questions in a Word document.
One way to assess how financials will do in the near term is to perform technical analysis on the overall stock market. Prior to Friday, the S&P 500 was very overbought, as the RSI(9) was well above 70. After Friday, the RSI fell to below 70, so it is no longer overbought. I also recommend that you look at the economic "numbers" that will be coming out this week. Other than the Leading Economic Indicators on Monday, the only major number with market moving potential is Durable Goods, which is released next Friday morning. So, for much of this week, the market overall and financials in particular will be driven by further news concerning the SEC's case against Goldman Sachs.
Technical analysis of the ETF for financials (XLF) shows how significant Friday's events were. The chart (click to enlarge) shows how the sharp decline in price on Friday broke a very steep trendline, while still preserving (for now at least) the overall uptrend (based on RSI >= 40). This decline did not lack conviction (sorry for the pun), as it was based on extremely high volume.
Based on Fibonacci Analysis, the next potential support for XLF occurs at the 38.2% retracement level with a price of $15.77 (Friday's close was $16.36). On the chart, note that the 50% retracement occurs at a prior high (from early January of this year) of $15.35. At this point, a 50% retracement can not be ruled out, as more news will no doubt emerge next week, much of which will involve negatives for Goldman Sachs and (potentially) other similar firms as well. Also, markets tend to overreact in the short-term to such momentous news events.The question now becomes how financials react and whether this trend for XLF is broken convincingly. For extra credit due at the beginning of class next Tuesday, create a PerfChart of the S&P sectors (as I did in class on Thursday) with a time period that starts at the beginning of April this year. Based on this, which sector has led this "leg" of the rally? What does the chart above signify about any potential changes in what the PerfChart shows? Should the defensive sectors see money flowing in as the result of Friday's news? Paste the PerfChart and brief answers to these questions in a Word document.
One way to assess how financials will do in the near term is to perform technical analysis on the overall stock market. Prior to Friday, the S&P 500 was very overbought, as the RSI(9) was well above 70. After Friday, the RSI fell to below 70, so it is no longer overbought. I also recommend that you look at the economic "numbers" that will be coming out this week. Other than the Leading Economic Indicators on Monday, the only major number with market moving potential is Durable Goods, which is released next Friday morning. So, for much of this week, the market overall and financials in particular will be driven by further news concerning the SEC's case against Goldman Sachs.
Tuesday, March 16, 2010
Picking Stocks to Invest In
As you probably know, there are different sized firms (small, medium, and large capitalization), and there are different emphases among them in ETF's. In this post I focus on growth and value orientations.
To get the symbols for these, I went to the ishares.com web site, which has an easy navigation method. On the left, select the US Market Cap/Style tab. Sub-tabs appear giving the different market cap possibilities, and when you click on one of these, you get the symbols for the market cap and emphasis of that ETF.
You can use these symbols to determine the size/orientations that are outperforming (hopefully) the market using PerfCharts in StockCharts.com. I have done this for you. Click on the following link to get the PerfChart for this.
You will need to convert this to a bar chart, so click on the bar designation below the graph on the bottom left.
- To compare performance to the S&P click on the S&P tab above the bar chart.
- On the bottom right below the graph, drag the bar to select the time period you will investigate. NOTE that the dates you end up with are given in the top left of the graph.
Once this is done, you will be able to see which sizes are performing best, or which orientation is doing better than others. I used the most recent low for the S&P 500 which occurred on February 5. Using this as the starting date (through the most recent date), small cap growth is the most rapidly growing ETF.
As an investor, how can you use this procedure for selecting potential ETF's or stocks to invest in? Obviously, any ETF's that outperform the S&P are obvious choices for you to consider. BUT, make sure you check the technicals of each of these ETF's before you decide whether to purchase shares (using the regular SharpCharts in StockCharts.com).
If you want to purchase individual stocks, what can you do? The answer to this is simpler than it might appear: Get the symbol of the ETF that is outperforming (here JKK), return to ishares.com, and investigate it there. Enter the symbol on the ishares home page or go to the tab to get to that ETF's page. There you will find the primary holdings in that ETF. You can click to find all holdings if desired), and its sector breakdown. If you click on View All Holdings in ishares.com, symbols for each holding are given. Get the symbols for the 10 largest holdings (PerfCharts can only deal with 10 things at a time). Return to PerfCharts, enter those symbols, then determine which individual stocks have outperformed the other ETF holdings.
Once you identify those, the final step consists of charting these and performing a technical analysis of each (or CandleGlance for the entire group). Based on your results, decide which if any you want to purchase (you should also have a sense of where the overall market is going).
To get the symbols for these, I went to the ishares.com web site, which has an easy navigation method. On the left, select the US Market Cap/Style tab. Sub-tabs appear giving the different market cap possibilities, and when you click on one of these, you get the symbols for the market cap and emphasis of that ETF.
You can use these symbols to determine the size/orientations that are outperforming (hopefully) the market using PerfCharts in StockCharts.com. I have done this for you. Click on the following link to get the PerfChart for this.
You will need to convert this to a bar chart, so click on the bar designation below the graph on the bottom left.
- To compare performance to the S&P click on the S&P tab above the bar chart.
- On the bottom right below the graph, drag the bar to select the time period you will investigate. NOTE that the dates you end up with are given in the top left of the graph.
Once this is done, you will be able to see which sizes are performing best, or which orientation is doing better than others. I used the most recent low for the S&P 500 which occurred on February 5. Using this as the starting date (through the most recent date), small cap growth is the most rapidly growing ETF.
As an investor, how can you use this procedure for selecting potential ETF's or stocks to invest in? Obviously, any ETF's that outperform the S&P are obvious choices for you to consider. BUT, make sure you check the technicals of each of these ETF's before you decide whether to purchase shares (using the regular SharpCharts in StockCharts.com).
If you want to purchase individual stocks, what can you do? The answer to this is simpler than it might appear: Get the symbol of the ETF that is outperforming (here JKK), return to ishares.com, and investigate it there. Enter the symbol on the ishares home page or go to the tab to get to that ETF's page. There you will find the primary holdings in that ETF. You can click to find all holdings if desired), and its sector breakdown. If you click on View All Holdings in ishares.com, symbols for each holding are given. Get the symbols for the 10 largest holdings (PerfCharts can only deal with 10 things at a time). Return to PerfCharts, enter those symbols, then determine which individual stocks have outperformed the other ETF holdings.
Once you identify those, the final step consists of charting these and performing a technical analysis of each (or CandleGlance for the entire group). Based on your results, decide which if any you want to purchase (you should also have a sense of where the overall market is going).
Sunday, March 7, 2010
February's Employment Report
February's employment report was better than expected. Even though there was a loss of 36,000 jobs, weather factors had been fully expected to exacerbate the final number. More importantly, when weather-distorted values of employment such as February occur, the jobs number in the following month almost always shows a significant rise, as some of the weather-related loss is "made up." This is clearly the expectation going forward, that March will show a rise in employment (not just because of the addition of Census workers). The unemployment rate remained at 9.7 percent, also better than anticipated, leading some to conjecture that we have already. Gseen the peak unemployment rate (I am not convinced of this yet). Here is an article about the report, and two videos from CNBC about the employment report. The first is pre-report, the second occurred after the data were released. The bond market hated the employment news, selling off, as the 10-year bond rose 8 basis points (remember: when bond prices fall, interest rates rise).
Most of the time, when an employment number is released, the stock market tends to bounce around, as bulls and bears battle throughout the day. Generally, this leads to a small daily change for the market that day. This was not the case on Friday, as the market shot higher and sustained its momentum throughout the trading day. The result was a large candle, a large real body, and almost no shadow (tails). Here is the chart for Friday (click to enlarge). Note that resistance in terms of the RSI(9) remains above 60, but it is now slightly overbought. So, will we make it to the next resistance at 1150 without a short-term pullback? Check next week's economic releases and see if there are any major releases that can materially affect the stock market.
I believe that the stock market sustained its earlier momentum as the day wore on because in addition to the jobs report, there was a report that consumer credit had risen, painting a potential picture of how a recovery will gain traction. Of course, time will tell if that perception turns out to be correct, but I believe the market is pricing this in.
There was a good video on CNBC that discusses sectors (a bit) and the interest rate to look at (2-year US Treasury) as a signal that the market will break out from its recent sideways action.
Finally, I didn't mention it in class Thursday, since I want to see who reads the blog postings, but our exam will be on Tuesday, March 16. So, dig in, do the assignment, and study for the upcoming exam.
Most of the time, when an employment number is released, the stock market tends to bounce around, as bulls and bears battle throughout the day. Generally, this leads to a small daily change for the market that day. This was not the case on Friday, as the market shot higher and sustained its momentum throughout the trading day. The result was a large candle, a large real body, and almost no shadow (tails). Here is the chart for Friday (click to enlarge). Note that resistance in terms of the RSI(9) remains above 60, but it is now slightly overbought. So, will we make it to the next resistance at 1150 without a short-term pullback? Check next week's economic releases and see if there are any major releases that can materially affect the stock market.
I believe that the stock market sustained its earlier momentum as the day wore on because in addition to the jobs report, there was a report that consumer credit had risen, painting a potential picture of how a recovery will gain traction. Of course, time will tell if that perception turns out to be correct, but I believe the market is pricing this in.
There was a good video on CNBC that discusses sectors (a bit) and the interest rate to look at (2-year US Treasury) as a signal that the market will break out from its recent sideways action.
Finally, I didn't mention it in class Thursday, since I want to see who reads the blog postings, but our exam will be on Tuesday, March 16. So, dig in, do the assignment, and study for the upcoming exam.
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